alas, closing day at del mar is upon us. i will retreat to the recesses of my cave until oak tree starts at the end of the month. will pop around for the occassional simulcast play. this is an early look before scratches and changes. i won't be playing all of these, but as a service to some members, here's my look at all the races.
r1: waki baby. bet this one last time and he won his debut at 6/1 (bet down from a 15/1 morning line, so he was no secret). 'baby had trained with a lot of speed prior to his debut, so i give him double credit for winning from way off the pace. pem's hostess is the desreving favorite as she has all the speed, but if the track is biased against speed like it was monday, look for waki to outrun her odds and her lowly beyer.
r2: fountain grove looks like a good bet to show big speed in his debut for bonde. love the outside post sprinting, but the 12-hole is way outside for 5.5fs. if 'grove doesn't break well, he's screwed. on the other hand, draw off ran well in his debut at bay meadows and now drops into a more realistic spot for don mills, he gets fogelsonger (again, this guy is going to win a ton of races here in socal) and would get my money at 4/1 or better.
r3: redatorre is an absolute freakshow. if he's in one piece, this is a one horse race. give him a good look on the track, and if he looks good, pair him up with designed for luck and investor's dream.
r4: no issues looks like a standout at a short price. pass this race for me.
r5: dancer memo looks like the one for juan garcia. sky reality will take the action but that filly doesn't have a lot of speed and howard zucker isn't exactly tearing the track up. 'memo on the other hand, looks good and need only show more early lick to be a big factor in here.
r6: i don't have much of an opinion in here except to say that i don't like brisquette, who figures to take a bunch of money. coconut girl looks like the obvious play, but will be massively overbet off her triple digit beyer in her last. i give talk me again a look for kruljac, but that one is speed ersus more speed.
r7: i have no strong opinion in here either, except to say this race is almost completely devoid of speed. musique toujours has that aforementioned attribute and will be leading to the top of the stretch. the best of the closers figures to be spainbird, who had a couple of tough trips of late. tough to swallow a 1 for 18 horse, but none of these are world beaters.
r8: hmm. there was more buzz about gulf of mexico before his debut that i'd heard since officer ran here a few years ago. he obliged with a nice win and a big 93 beyer. he figures to go favored off that race, but i will stand against him in his second start. siphonizer was a big winner for me in his debut, and got bet down to an unplayable 9/5 in his second start and stakes debut. i will pass on him from the rail, although i think he will turn into a very nice miler down the road. minister was workmanlike against odds on (who came back to beat tough negotiator(previously vanquished by the aforementioned gulf of mexico)), and figures to go well in here. however, i'm betting it's 8 in a row for baffert as cooperation takes these with minister eric a good second.
r9: i like a longshot in here- don't know which one i'll back- either le mans or sapore di mare. le mans has run well enough to win this class of race in the past and makes his return for the solid baby mandella. le mans looked like a tired horse towards the end of the hollywood meet- mandella has freshened him and he looks live. sapore di mare may just be a morning glory. he trains like a machine and then can't run a step in the afternoons. last chance for glory?
r10: going to try to end the del mar meeting with a price- angela'stough water. although mr. tough h2o hasn't won on turf, he had a terrible trip in his last race for jack carava. now i'm not enamored with pedroza on the turf, but 'angela gets blinkers and should be forwardly placed throughout. he drew a nice post and will probably float higher than his 8/1 morning line.
good luck everyone.
r1: waki baby. bet this one last time and he won his debut at 6/1 (bet down from a 15/1 morning line, so he was no secret). 'baby had trained with a lot of speed prior to his debut, so i give him double credit for winning from way off the pace. pem's hostess is the desreving favorite as she has all the speed, but if the track is biased against speed like it was monday, look for waki to outrun her odds and her lowly beyer.
r2: fountain grove looks like a good bet to show big speed in his debut for bonde. love the outside post sprinting, but the 12-hole is way outside for 5.5fs. if 'grove doesn't break well, he's screwed. on the other hand, draw off ran well in his debut at bay meadows and now drops into a more realistic spot for don mills, he gets fogelsonger (again, this guy is going to win a ton of races here in socal) and would get my money at 4/1 or better.
r3: redatorre is an absolute freakshow. if he's in one piece, this is a one horse race. give him a good look on the track, and if he looks good, pair him up with designed for luck and investor's dream.
r4: no issues looks like a standout at a short price. pass this race for me.
r5: dancer memo looks like the one for juan garcia. sky reality will take the action but that filly doesn't have a lot of speed and howard zucker isn't exactly tearing the track up. 'memo on the other hand, looks good and need only show more early lick to be a big factor in here.
r6: i don't have much of an opinion in here except to say that i don't like brisquette, who figures to take a bunch of money. coconut girl looks like the obvious play, but will be massively overbet off her triple digit beyer in her last. i give talk me again a look for kruljac, but that one is speed ersus more speed.
r7: i have no strong opinion in here either, except to say this race is almost completely devoid of speed. musique toujours has that aforementioned attribute and will be leading to the top of the stretch. the best of the closers figures to be spainbird, who had a couple of tough trips of late. tough to swallow a 1 for 18 horse, but none of these are world beaters.
r8: hmm. there was more buzz about gulf of mexico before his debut that i'd heard since officer ran here a few years ago. he obliged with a nice win and a big 93 beyer. he figures to go favored off that race, but i will stand against him in his second start. siphonizer was a big winner for me in his debut, and got bet down to an unplayable 9/5 in his second start and stakes debut. i will pass on him from the rail, although i think he will turn into a very nice miler down the road. minister was workmanlike against odds on (who came back to beat tough negotiator(previously vanquished by the aforementioned gulf of mexico)), and figures to go well in here. however, i'm betting it's 8 in a row for baffert as cooperation takes these with minister eric a good second.
r9: i like a longshot in here- don't know which one i'll back- either le mans or sapore di mare. le mans has run well enough to win this class of race in the past and makes his return for the solid baby mandella. le mans looked like a tired horse towards the end of the hollywood meet- mandella has freshened him and he looks live. sapore di mare may just be a morning glory. he trains like a machine and then can't run a step in the afternoons. last chance for glory?
r10: going to try to end the del mar meeting with a price- angela'stough water. although mr. tough h2o hasn't won on turf, he had a terrible trip in his last race for jack carava. now i'm not enamored with pedroza on the turf, but 'angela gets blinkers and should be forwardly placed throughout. he drew a nice post and will probably float higher than his 8/1 morning line.
good luck everyone.
